What’s Really Going on With Jobs Right Now?

If it feels like you’re in a real-life production of A Tale of Two Economies, you’re not alone.

On one hand, headlines are full of AI-driven layoffs – and some tech leaders have bluntly stated they expect almost all white-color jobs to disappear within the decade. The numbers are hard to ignore; tens of thousands of job cuts at companies like Amazon, Intel and Meta. (Big Tech has accounted for about 30% of the 300,000 layoffs announced thus far in 2026, with other headline-making 2025 layoffs in finance, consulting and media.)

Then there’s inflation – and we probably don’t need to explain what that’s been doing to wallets and mindsets. For the first time since the post-Covid inflation spike, prices are now growing faster than wages, and given rising energy costs, relief feels far off. Put unemployment fears together with higher inflation, and it’s no wonder a lot of Americans are feeling gloomy.

On the other hand, the U.S. stock market is climbing in 2026. Many of the same companies making layoff headlines are still highly profitable – and, in fact, are helping push markets higher.

So when it comes to the strength of the economy, which is it, boom or bust?

Most people don’t experience the economy through markets, GDP or earnings reports. They experience it through their own job, their paycheck and their sense of stability. And that helps explain the disconnect you might feel.

JOB LOSS VS. JOB MISMATCH

Part of what’s driving the tension is the level of concentration in job market weakening. Big-name tech firms that everyone recognizes – and expects to be doing well after years of “Magnificent Seven” and “FAANG” dominance – have accounted for a larger share of layoffs relative to tech’s representation in the overall workforce. That makes the slowdown feel more widespread than it actually is.

The reality is more complicated. Jobs are still being created. Hiring hasn’t ground to a halt. In fact, companies are still announcing tens of thousands of new roles, often outside the industries dominating layoff headlines. And those jobs don’t always require the same skills as the ones being cut.

For someone in a growing sector, the job market may feel steady. For someone in a shrinking one, it can feel like the ground is shifting. While a “job mismatch” reality might be better than every industry losing jobs at once, it probably doesn’t help your anxiety much if it feels like your industry has a target on it.

Tech job losses have had an outsized impact

Announced job cuts as reported by jobs firm Challenger. Source: Bloomberg.

INFLATION: THE BACKGROUND PRESSURE YOU CAN’T IGNORE

Even for people who feel secure in their jobs, there’s another pressure point: how far a paycheck goes. Inflation has come down from its peak, but prices are still high, especially for everyday essentials. There are also early signs that inflation may be creeping ahead of wage growth again.

‘JOB HUGGING’ IS THE NEW REALITY

In April 2026, the unemployment rate was around 4.3%, which is right in line with its average over the past several years and still low by historical standards. As we said, hiring is still happening in some industries, mostly non-white-collar ones. And there’s another trend keeping unemployment down: Fewer people are leaving their jobs voluntarily.

You might remember that a few years ago, workers had the upper hand. People dumped jobs in record numbers, chasing higher pay, more work-life balance or better opportunities. Today, that dynamic has flipped. Instead of job-hopping, people are staying put even if they’re not completely satisfied – a “job hugging” trend we covered at the start of the year. When the future feels less predictable, security starts to matter more than upside.

The number of people quitting jobs has moved almost eerily in sync with the number of job openings, keeping unemployment contained

Total nonfarm job openings and total nonfarm quits as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Source: Bloomberg.

AI: DISRUPTION AND REINVENTION

Of course, it’s impossible to talk about the job market today without talking about AI. Some roles are being displaced, it’s true. But that’s only part of the story. We’re in the middle of a broader transition that looks a lot like past periods of technological change.

As we move through it, we expect that new roles will be created and some existing ones will adapt. And there are already signs that some companies may be rethinking how far they can automate as they rediscover where human judgment and flexibility still matter.

This process of creative destruction and rebirth is rarely smooth; it takes time, and it often feels uncertain while it’s happening. But it’s also how economies grow and how new opportunities emerge.

WHAT ACTUALLY MATTERS TO YOU

The labor market is complex. The trends we’ve covered – strong company performance, slowing wage growth, job hugging and AI – are just a few slices of what’s happening with employment right now. Changes in immigration patterns, geographic demand and consumer demand are also playing into it.

But your financial life is much more personal. You’re not the labor market. You’re one person, with your own career, your own income and your own goals. If your job is stable, you may not be paying too much attention to the headlines. If your industry is under pressure, the risks are real and we acknowledge that.

In many ways, the “split-screen” dynamic is the defining feature of today’s job market. And that gap – between how things feel and what the data shows – is making many people uncomfortable.

But here’s some comfort: You don’t need to predict how AI will reshape the workforce. You don’t need to guess when hiring will pick up again. And you don’t need to anticipate every twist in the economy. With a portfolio designed to be resilient under a wide range of outcomes (so you can harness the growth potential of the companies and innovations that will shape the future economy), all you need to do is focus on what’s within your control. Stay adaptable and maintain some financial flexibility, especially if you’re worried about your job, but continue to focus on the long term with discipline, diversification and perspective.